STORY AND PHOTO BY KAREN BOSSICK

Blaine County’s work force is shrinking as the percentage of residents between 20 and 65 decreases. And that could lead to a shortage of working age people in the future.

“It’s not a pretty picture. We need professional jobs. We need housing. We need infrastructure to change the trajectory,” David Patrie told those attending the quarterly Sun Valley Economic Development meeting held this past week at Ketchum Innovation Center.

Patrie said the percentage of residents younger than 20 and older than 65 is on the rise—but they don’t tend to work. All other age groups are decreasing, according to the Annual Economic Profiles released this week by Sun Valley Economic Development.

The 35- through 54-year-old group was the largest group in 2000, but it will be second to last in 20 years if the trend continues, Patrie said. The 20- to 34-year-old group will go from the middle of the pack to the smallest group if the trend continues.

In Sun Valley’s favor, noted Steve Mills, former CEO of Webb Landscape, is the fact that young people are desperate to find a better place to raise and educate their children. “My generation values quality of life,” added a young man, backing up Webb’s observation.

Other parts of the economic profile prepared by SVED’s Harry Griffith and Patrie were more promising:

• REPORTED SALES in Blaine County were $863 million in sales in 2017—a 5 percent increase over 2016. That’s “pretty healthy,” said Patrie.

  The City of Bellevue reported an increase of 44 percent in sales—its sales rising from $70 million to $80 million, attributable primarily to the new Silver Creek Hotel.

  Ketchum reported an increase of 10 percent, while Hailey reported a 1.5 percent decrease—probably due to the closing of King’s variety store. (Albertson’s sales are not included since it’s headquartered in Boise.)

  Sales are up slightly—from $16 to $17 million—in Carey. Residents are still having to buy groceries in Bellevue since their grocery store closed two years ago, but SVED is trying to recruit a store for the town, Patrie said.

• THERE WERE 12,543 JOBS reported to the Department of Labor in Blaine County during 2017—a 5 percent increase. That’s the biggest increase since the 2008 recession. The peak was 13,694 jobs in 2007.

  Ketchum reported 5,078 jobs and Hailey, 4,630. The number of jobs in Sun Valley was down .7 percent; the number of jobs in Carey was up 15 percent. Construction is rebounding, Patrie said, but it’s still 30 percent off its peak in 2007.

• WAGES: While there are more jobs in Ketchum, wages are higher in Hailey.

  Blaine County reported $508 million in total wages during 2017—an 8.5 percent increase. There were $214 million in wages in Hailey and $206 in Ketchum.

• SELF-EMPLOYMENT is becoming a more significant portion of Blaine County’s economy, rising 2.4 percent between 2015 and 2017 to $217 million.

  There are now 3,620 self-employed residents, up from 3,280 in 2010. The average income for those who are self-employed is $59,900, which is close to the median household income.

• The GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT for Blaine County is estimated to have topped $2 billion in 2017 for the first time. It was estimated at $1.8 billion in 2014. That shows “decent growth,” Patrie said.
• POPULATION is “pretty flat,” with just 0.3 growth per year over the last six years, Patrie noted.

  Blaine County has 22,024 residents. The average increase the last six years is less than a half percent. That number doesn’t include second homeowners.

  Sun Valley’s population decreased from 1,408 full time residents to 1,398 between 2015 and 2016, and Bellevue’s population from 2,514 to 2,362. Ketchum’s grew from 2,706 to 2,719; Hailey, from 8,002 to 8,058; and Carey from 539 to 561.

  The county is made up of 16,669 Caucasians, 4,272 Hispanics and 435 other. Without growth among the Hispanic population, the county’s population would be shrinking, Patrie said.

• REAL ESTATE SALES rose from $538 million in 2016 to $658 million in 2017, a 62 percent increase. But housing markets are undersupplied. A six-month supply of housing is considered a healthy supply; Ketchum came closest to that goal with a 5.3-month supply; Hailey had a four-month supply.

Realtors reported 658 transactions during 2017—a 22 percent increase over 2016. Patrie said Sun Valley Economic Development will continue to address affordable housing in 2019, focusing on using higher densities to make a dent in the housing situation

SUN VALLEY ECONOMIC SUMMIT COMING UP:

The 2018 Economic Summit, titled “Harnessing the Power of Community to Build a Vibrant Economy,”  will be held from 8 a.m. to 2:45 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 30, at the Limelight Room at Sun Valley Resort.

This year’s conference will feature several 5- to 10-minute quick talks similar to TED Talks, rather than panel discussions.

Among the presenters: national mountain bike champion Rebecca Rusch, who has brought hundreds of amateur and professional bike racers from across the country to take part in her Rebecca’s Private Idaho gravel road ride each year, and Jake Moe, the founder of “Powder” magazine.

Register online at www.SunValleyEconomy.org.