BY JIMMY TART

Powder. It’s the goal. The ephemeral nature of powder snow means that supply can’t always meet demand so, when it’s good, it needs to get gotten. Everyone wants to be on the best snow possible.

With the trade organization Snowsports Industries America reporting 2.2 million participants in alpine touring in 2023, up from a relatively measly 700,000 just three years previously, the backcountry avalanche forecast is now more in demand than ever.

In ski towns throughout the Mountain West, the avalanche forecast and local avalanche forecast center is a daily aspect of life. But, despite their presence, many people--forecast users and non-users alike--don’t REALLY know how the forecast centers operate or even what a forecaster does on a daily basis.

In the case of the Wood River Valley. our local backcountry avalanche forecast center is the Sawtooth Avalanche Center.

Run by Scott Savage, who has been with the center since 2012, the Sawtooth Avalanche Center is a part of the US Forest Service and, according to their website (https://www.sawtoothavalanche.com/), their mission is to “provide actionable avalanche and mountain weather information for people recreating, working, or traveling in the Sawtooth National Forest and surrounding areas.” In other words: Keep the taxpayers safe while recreating in the amazing backcountry of our local public lands in the winter!

As a federal entity, the US Forest Service Sawtooth Avalanche Forecast Center has little ability to actually bridge budget shortfalls brought on by factors like epic winters such as last year’s. Every budget dollar must be wrestled out of a system that underappreciates, and underfunds, public avalanche forecast centers. Because of this, there is another critical piece of the avalanche forecasting puzzle in the Wood River Valley--the similarly named and often confused Friends of The Sawtooth Avalanche Center (https://friends.sawtoothavalanche.com/).

The Friends, whose mission is “to support the Sawtooth Avalanche Center and promote life-saving avalanche safety information, education, and outreach throughout central Idaho,” is a 501(c)(3) non-profit that is able to raises funds to support the SAC and in fact provides for “about 50%” of the SAC’s funding.

This funding goes towards not just supporting the forecast team, it also goes towards educational outreach in the community and supporting the SAC website.

But who are these wizards and what is their magic that makes them able to see the future across so many mountain ranges? How do they know what to write on the website so early every morning to keep the skiers and snowmobilers safe? How does the forecast actually get made?

The avalanche forecaster’s day starts early. It does not stand alone as its own story to be told, but each day in the winter is a page in the story of the whole season. Every forecaster has their own workflow, but there are steps in general that most follow.

There is the previous day’s forecast to review. This involves observations that were made by other forecasters in the operation, the general public and forecasting departments from other professional operations, including ski patrols and guide services. The forecaster asks: Was yesterday’s forecast correct? It can be a humbling part of the morning.

Then it is time to look at the weather data from the previous 24 hours. Weather is the architect of avalanches and data from field observations and weather stations is what will lead to an increase, or decrease, in forecasted stability.

In the case of the SAC, there are 87 relevant weather stations installed and maintained by federal, state, and local agencies, as well as commercial firms, in the forecast area that offer remote data. Not all stations are relevant every day and, to be efficient, a forecaster must know which station to look at for the most pertinent information that day. After all, the avalanche forecast need to be published early enough in the morning for the public to be able to include it in their travel plans for the day.

It can take many years of formal education and field experience to know how snow behaves. There is a certain need for a creative brain to be able to look at the data, know snow behavior and be able to write the next page in the story.

Instead of bogging down in the details of the nine different types of avalanches, the 80 different types of snow crystals, how the shape of a snowflake is determined primarily by the temperature and humidity at which it is formed, grain morphology and how temperature and humidity effects snow on the ground… maybe it is time for some analogies.

Cake is good. There are wedding cakes, birthday cakes and coffee cakes, among others. They can be chocolate, strawberry, funfetti even (whatever THAT is). They are all cakes, but they all come from different recipes and have different ingredients. As I noted earlier, weather is the architect of avalanches.

Different weather patterns will lead to the formation of different avalanche problems in the snowpack. More than two nights with mountain temperatures going below freezing can lead to Wet Loose and even Wet Slab avalanches. Winds can move loose snow from windward slopes to leeward slopes leading to Wind Slab avalanches. A big storm with high precipitation rates can lead to Storm Slab avalanches. The other types of avalanches have weather patterns spanning the frame of hours to months that lead to their formation, as well. The weather and the snow pack are the ingredients and recipe that go into each different avalanche problem.

A good forecaster can take what they already know about the snowpack, input the weather data and make an educated guess at what kind of avalanches might result just like a good chef can read a list of ingredients and make an educated guess at what kind of cake will result.

All this before 7:30 in the morning, with public safety on the line.

At some point, every good chef has to sample their work to make sure the product is spot on. This is the time of day that makes the low pay, long hours and stress of the forecaster’s life worth it: It is time to go skiing.

Certainly, there is work to be done. Is the forecast you put out hours before accurate? Is the weather doing what was expected in the forecast? Snow pits to be dug and layers to be identified by hardness, grain type and depth… Notes to be taken to be passed along in the afternoon meeting to the forecaster responsible for the next day’s forecast. Each day feeds into the next, each day an opportunity to recalibrate and produce a forecast more accurate than the day before. Each day an opportunity to write another page in the story of the winter.

And ski some powder on the way.