STORY AND PHOTOS BY KAREN BOSSICK

Heat—not wildfires, tornados, hurricanes and floods—has the potential for the largest mass casualties in the coming years, according to a new study published in Environmental Science and Technology.

The report estimates that nearly 70 percent of those living in Phoenix—more than 952,000 people—would need emergency care for heat stroke and heat-related illnesses, overwhelming the city’s medical system, should the city experience a blackout during a severe heatwave. And that’s not out of the question, as blackout events in this country doubled between 2015 and 2021.

Such alarming scenarios doesn’t surprise Jeff Goodall. Goodall, a Rolling Stone contributor who has been researching climate change for two decades, just finished a new book titled “The Heat Will Kill You First.” He read a portion of the book, which will be released in mid-July, for those attending this week’s Sun Valley Forum.

And, while it seemed funny to be talking about heatwaves when Sun Valley residents were covering plants to protect them from a 29-degree low on the eve of the Summer Solstice, Goodall had just come to Sun Valley from Texas where he was sweltering in 107-degree heat.

Goodall said global warming was like a pesky porcupine when he first began researching it. Now it’s an all-encompassing issue that affects everyone. It’s not a thing over there. It’s something that can be linked to so many issues facing mankind, including housing.

We can thank 250 years of fossil fuel consumption for the crisis in which we find ourselves, he said. And the more coal and gas we burn, the hotter it’ll get.

It may be a little hard for people to wrap their head around, Goodall acknowledged. After all, when scientists warn of rising temperatures, who can tell the difference between 78 and 81 degrees? In pop culture hot is sexy, hot is cool. Heat is an expression of passion. And in sweat lodges, sweat is a purifying sign of inner strength.

“I want you to think about heat in a different way,” he told Sun Valley Forum attendees gathered at The Argyros Theatre in Ketchum. “Heat is an active force that can bend railroad tracks. It’s something that can kill you before you know what hit you. And extreme heat is an entirely human artifact.”

Right now, Goodall said, scientists don’t know how to reverse global warming; they just know how to stop it. Some animals will fare better with global warming and some worse. Robins, for instance, an migrate easier than elephants. Polar bears have nowhere to go.

And the looming El Nino could cause global temperatures to rise above the 1.5-degree Celsius warming threshold outlined by the United Nations. The year 2023 is shaping up to be the hottest ever recorded around the world, and scientists with the Climate Impact Researching are predicting 2024 could eclipse it.

The basic science is not complicated, Goodall said. Stop burning fossil fuels tomorrow, and the global temperature will stop rising tomorrow. Wait, and stop burning fossil fuels in 50 years, and the temperature will keep rising for 50 years, making parts of the planet virtually uninhabitable.

Heatwaves like the one that killed hundreds of people in British Columbia, Portland and Seattle in 2021 are now 150 times more likely than at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, said Goodall. Even Antarctica made history on March 22 as with a heatwave the pushed the temperature there 70 degrees above normal.

Billions could find themselves in places where being outside for just a few hours could result in death. In parts of Pakistan it’s already too hot for people to be outside several weeks of the year.

And even those with good air conditioning will feel the effects of extreme heat, said Kathy Baughman McLeod, who joined Goodall during his talk. After all, planes don’t fly when it’s 123 degrees Fahrenheit, said McLeod, senior vice president and director of the Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center.

But, while extreme heat is a force beyond anything we’ve reckoned with before, new technology is providing some solutions, said McLeod.  

Some cities are painting streets white to deflect the sunlight. They’re using reflective roof materials to cool surface temperatures. They’re planting trees to provide shade. And new high-tech fabric is being manufactured to deflect sunlight. But those are for the wealthy and privileged, Goodall said.

New technology includes early warning systems for an invisible enemy—environmental measuring units that tell golfers when it’s safe to hit the links and soccer players when it’s safe to kick the ball around.

“We need something like that at every playground, every worksite,” McLeod said.

Naming heatwaves, like we already do hurricanes, can help warn people, as well, she added, saying no one should have to die from heat.

“This is a long fight, and we’re just at the beginning,” said Goodall.